MyDD :: The Hillary Clinton Scenario

The Hillary Clinton Scenario

by Headlight, Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:50:57 PM EST

I've read many times the diaries and entries on this site about the popular vote metric and Hillary's ability to pull out a victory under certain circumstances -- but I'm really having trouble picturing how this would all occur.

As I understand it, Clinton is depending on the following sequence of events: 1) the Democratic Party Rules Committee will meet on May 31, and at that meeting there will be some determination to seat delegates selected in the then-unsanctioned primaries in Michigan and Florida; 2) since all candidates other than Clinton withdrew from the race in Michigan, she would be the only candidate able to claim any share in the popular vote total there -- catapulting her into the "lead" in "popular votes." 3) This will also have the effect of raising the bar for the number of delegates that Obama would have to receive to claim victory from 2025 to 2209. 4) Clinton will then argue to the superdelegates that she is, in fact, leading the race (even though she is behind in the number of pledged delegates). 5) an overwhelming number of the remaining superdelegates, persuaded that this new popular vote metric is critically important and that Clinton has tremendous momentum and is much more electable than Obama, will flock to Clinton to hand her the nomination.

It's that fifth part that I don't get. The Rules Committee understands exactly what their decisions May 31 will have on the race. A change that would satisfy Clinton would dissatisfy Obama -- and moreover, it would essentially reverse their previous decision to sanction Florida and Michigan in the first place and particularly sanction candidates who followed the party's lead by dropping out of the contest in Michigan entirely. It isn't that they will make their decision in a vacuum and let the chips fall where they may. Is that really what Clinton supporters believe they will do?

Tags: hillary clinton primary (all tags)

Permalink :: 7 Comments :: Post a Comment

Step 1: Stay in the Race (2.00 / 1)

Step 2: ??????
Step 3: Nomination

by bobdoleisevil on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:54:33 PM EST

#2 (1.00 / 3)

If I'm not mistaken, I think Hillary finally let it inadvertently slip out this past week exactly what her "#2" plans are to make it so that she is the nominee.

by Deano963 on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:40:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Hillary Clinton Scenario (none / 0)

She's $20M in debt. She'll continue to raise funds.
She has the money to loose as well.

She's (1)seeking power and (2)will likely run again:

1) She can negotiate for more power in the party and concessions from Obama.

2) The damage she's doing now works towards her running again sooner rather than later.

She's a fighter. She's fighting for... herself.

by mcdtracy on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:56:07 PM EST

Re: The Hillary Clinton Scenario (none / 0)

#2 is wrong. Only Edwards/Obama took their names off the ballot, the other candidates remained on the ballott. Thus Obama/Edwards put forth a campaign to vote uncommitted.

#3 goes to 2210 or 2211 (with add on delegates) if MI/FL is counted in full.

#4 there are still over 200 SD's that haven't committed, this number goes up if MI/FL is included.

#5 - that's the hope.

by nikkid on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:27:34 PM EST

Re: The Hillary Clinton Scenario (none / 0)

2. The Committee will issue a ruling that the nomination process is based on delegates and that no popular vote from MI/FL or any other state counts toward the nomination.

3. Since popular vote doesn't count (it's a delegate race, remember?), MI/FL does not change the delegate count due to popular vote.

3. a. The Committe will rule that the original punishment of stripping MI/FL of 100% of their delegates stands since it was a near unanimous decision by the Committe at the August 2007 penalty meeting. There were 29 votes for the 100% penalty, 12 of which were from Clinton supporters. The sole dissenting vote was from an Obama supporter.

by edg1 on Sun May 25, 2008 at 11:07:14 PM EST

Re: The Hillary Clinton Scenario (none / 0)

The convention is 3 months away. At this I am assuming that, whatever happens on May 31, the only way that Hillary wins is if there is some unexpected event that swings Super Delegate opinion her way.

Perhaps Obama commits a major gaffe that casts doubt on his electability. Or perhaps something come up unexpected in the Rezko trial or something else comes up about Obama's past. Or perhaps for some other reasons polls swing badly against Obama, so that Hillary vs. McCain matchups run 20 points better than Hillary vs. Obama matchups.

Any of these things, combined with Hillary having the popular vote lead, could cause super delegates (even those who have already declared their intention) to cast their vote for Hillary.

Not likely, but far from impossible.

by markjay on Mon May 26, 2008 at 12:11:00 PM EST

Re: The Hillary Clinton Scenario (none / 0)

Anything is possible, though I doubt superdelegates are going to take it on themselves to overrule the determinations of the elected delegates short of criminal charges against Obama. The magnitude of offense Obama would have to have committed to lose the nomination at this point would have to be something that would force him to resign from the Senate as well. But essentially, your answer is that Hillary is hoping that Obama will stumble and she'll be able to pick up the torch. That doesn't suggest to me that she's going to get behind Obama in any meaningful way at least until the convention (assuming that he locks up the nomination shortly after the last contest is over). It sure doesn't make me think she'd be an asset as VP.

by Headlight on Tue May 27, 2008 at 11:07:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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